Over the past few weeks, the narrative in the US-Russia war, and yes it is a US-Russia war, has changed. With more and more countries softening their approach to Russia, refusing to sanction them, or finding ways around the existing sanctions, the writing is clear. The United States sphere of influence is contracting and rapidly so.
Does this mean that the US is irrelevant? Definitely Not. Despite small movements towards the denouncement of the USD as the singular reserve currency, it still remains the currency of choice for the vast majority. But in the past few weeks, countries like Brazil, France, and Saudi Arabia have agreed to trade in the Chinese Yuan.
The Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think-tank has suggested the US should increase its support and aid to India in case of an Indo-Chinese conflict. The assumption here is obviously an aim to bring India into its fold and to refute China’s growth, even within Asia.
This is not a new policy for the US, it is a tried and tested method that the US has employed in Africa, the Middle East, and even South America. The country’s superiority when it comes to military technology and strategy often gives it an advantage against opponents. But then again, not many wars are actually fought in the US are they? The nature of the American continent means that the US will not potentially see a direct threat any time soon.
Is this beneficial for India? If India can maintain its neutrality in the event of a Chinese war, a neutrality in the Russia-US sphere, it still comes out on top. However, in the event that Russia’s influence in the global sphere does not matter as much, or where the Chinese influence far exceeds that of Russia, India might need to realign with the US to save an embarrassing defeat. That being said, there is no proper way for China to even attack India. The small border skirmishes are not really serious clashes, it’s mostly with clubs and non-lethal weapons.
But the US’ attitude towards turning these small skirmishes into something serious is already visible from the various think-tank studies as well as a few statements by US government officials. For the longest time, India has maintained its position of the Indo-Pak relations being a bilateral matter. Even though US as repeatedly sought to interfere in the India-Pakistan issue, India’s reluctance to accept any outside help will serve it really well in the times to come. It’s refusal to accept the direct involvement of a third country when it comes to Pakistan provides the grounds for refusing help (while still buying or accepting any military information from foreign countries).
What’s the future for Asia?
There’s no doubt that the 21st century is Asia’s century. There is a good possibility of the next century also belong to the Asian subcontinent. However, as we head closer to 2025, we are already seeing the prospects of what a regime change might look like. And more and more, it looks headed towards a direct clash between at least, two out of the nearly 6-7 superpowers in the world today.
Europe plays a key role in this. Europe has been an American vassal for as long as one can remember. But Europe’s closeness to China can not be overlooked. With the majority of its trade with China, Europe is the continent with the most to lose in case of trade sanctions with China or otherwise.
There is already an economic block comprising India and China. This economic bloc - BRICS+ - is the single biggest challenge to the USD dominance. It is a block that is as diverse as it can get when it comes to military approaches, political ideologies and more. But with more than 33% of the world’s population being represented in this bloc, it is not an easy one to ignore. It also comprises a similarly significant chunk of the world’s GDP.
The fact that it does not have a dominant say in the world affairs is actually quite astonishing. It is important to note taht the GDP control is despite the fact that the reserve currency does not belong to any one of these countries.
But in the eventuality of India and China finding common ground within the economic bloc, it would be game over for the USD. Whether such a thing comes to pass is already up for debate, but if there is one thing that India has successfully implemented in the past 5-6 years is the UPI system.
A new system that would take advantage of India’s mobile usage, via the UPI system or otherwise throughout Asia would be a big stepo forward for India. It is already in talks with several governments to expand the reach of UPI across borders. For Indians. It would bring the familiar UPI to overseas shops and it would essentially allow Indian currency to take on a more significant role in global affairs.
China’s ambitions are obviously much grander, where it believes it (and Russia ) should be the world’s caretakers. There is precedence for this, the two countries are massive superpowers who, ideally, should be able to defeat the United States in case of an all-out war. But whether such a war will come to fruition or not, is still up for debate.
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