Just months after the Russia-Ukraine War started, the world is on the brink of another war. The new crisis could potentially have a far-reaching impact on global trade, security as well as growth. The crisis is between Taiwan and China, but the US has obviously been the instigator and has fueled China’s anger.
The general consensus on social media seems to be - it’s China’s fault. They created a ruckus over a simple diplomatic visit by the US. But let me put it into perspective. Nancy Pelosi’s visit came at a time when China has repeatedly requested/warned the United States to not send Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. The country has a basis for such warnings and requests. Over 180 countries in the world accept the One-China policy, which essentially is approval of China’s claims over Sri Lanka. And then to today try to counter that claim seems to be sus.
I liken the situation similar to a foreign country would send delegations (or an official representative in this case) to Kashmir after repeatedly acknowledging Kashmir is a part of India, without informing or seeking consent from the Govt. of India. Let’s say, I am talking about PoK - Pakistan Occupied Kashmir or the part that China owns right now. Even though these countries own Kashmir, the world over, countries have acknowledged India’s claim over Kashmir.
China has been vociferous in its opposition to Nancy Pelosi’s visit, going to the extent of warning of military action as a consequence. And they have stuck to their word, it was not a military attack on Pelosi (that thought is absurd btw). But China has live drills all around Taiwan. Nancy Pelosi’s visit accomplished very little except to undo decades of progress on multiple fronts between two of the world’s superpowers.
What’s next?
China wants an apology for Nancy Pelosi’s visit. The US has formally said it won’t be apologizing. The entire situation is pushing China into a corner and that does not bode well for world peace. When two countries full of military and nuclear capabilities are being bullied by one superpower, it could lead to adverse circumstances.
Now for an Indian perspective. India is in a very unique situation. Russia has been a long-weather friend for India. Going against China, especially on the Taiwan issue, does not seem to be an option for India due to its current foreign policy as well as China’s border with India.
India will continue to wait and watch, adopting a stance that does not place it openly in either camp. Today, US, Japan and Australia, three of the four QUAD members openly criticized China for its position on Taiwan. China clearly still reeling from the global humiliation and the open instigation has already ‘warned’ Australia on choosing its words wisely.
There are surely deeper issues at play here. Every country seems to be openly accepting of the US supremacy and seems to be OK with them interfering with other countries’ matters. I am saying that in this case because Taiwan is a part of China - And this is the official accepted position of more than 180 countries. I think the first step would be to officially recognize Taiwan if you wanted to support the island. Instead the entire episode is designed to humiliate China on the world order and possibly even apply pressure on China to shape Russia’s actions in Ukraine. After all, China’s backing has single-handedly ensured that Russia continue its war on Ukraine without much of a consequence.
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