For several weeks now, there have been rumors or even direct representations about a Ukrainian counter-offensive. To me, that’s the most surprising part. Why would you advertise your counter-offensive so much that the talks actually reach a crescendo? Isn’t surprise the most crucial part of a counter-offensive or an offensive?
Why would Ukraine do a counter-offensive?
From social media reports, Bakhmut has been a meat grinder. It’s a more official way to say that Bakhmut is where Ukrainian soldiers were sent to die and they suffered immensely. Poor general decisions meant thousands of Bakhmut deaths. Meanwhile, Russia seems more than intent on taking this war into the long run having already established its presence with China and also getting immense help from India (in reselling its goods).
The West’s patience is wearing thin and it has been obvious for some time. The West has been distancing itself from the Ukrainian Counter-offensive repeatedly saying the Counter-offensive will be run by the Ukrainian generals and army. They also revealed they have given Ukraine 98% of all weapons needed for a counter-offensive. Meanwhile, there is pin-drop silence from Ukraine when it comes to the West giving them all the weaponry needed.
It’s quite obvious time is running out for Ukraine. Russia is more than happy to prolong the Special operation for a long time, Ukraine and the West aren’t. The West probably realized mid-last year that the real threat is China and being bogged down by Russia wasn’t helping the West at all.
China has progressively increased its soft power in the world with Yuan taking a dominant role in several countries. With the BRI extending up to Afghanistan, it presents a logistical problem for the US. It’s influence in the Asian continent and by extension, Africa is waning rapidly. Europe is in shambles and pretty much dependent on Russia-Ukraine when it comes to energy or grain. So when the Russia-Ukraine war keeps going on for a long time, EU is going to be of no help for the US’ ambitions of world dominance.
Don’t get me wrong, every country wants to dominate the world. There’s no country in the world that wouldn’t want to be in the position that US or even China is today. It takes decades of planning and lot of adversities and not every country is ready to tackle that.
How big is China’s role in the world today?
China is no longer an emerging superpower. It is already the biggest superpower there is. The country has a GDP that is calculated on the basis of the USD. But it has still surpassed several other countries to become Number 1. Europe depends on China, China buys from Africa and South America. There’s so much integration between the world’s countries and China that it is simply impossible to imagine a world without China today.
China has increased its soft power with influence across the world. From countries like Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and even Pakistan, China’s influence also extends North into Russia.
Today, the US wants to encircle China with more than 400 military bases surrounding China. That is a provocation, period. That being said, what will happen if China starts installing bases in and around the US? Will the US take kindly to that? I don't think so. Remember Cuba?
The counter-offensive is starting soon and it will determine the fate of the war. The Russia-Ukraine war ending might not be good news as it might just mean the start of provocation for the US-China war via the Taiwan proxy.
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