Alright before you start drawing conclusions, my answer is clear: It's the United States of America. And yes, both Russia and especially Ukraine lose a lot, a lot. 100%. The economic sanctions against Russia will carve a different place for them, possibly for the next 10-15 years.
But from a broader perspective, it is the USD that is the biggest loser, and by association, the United States of America. What is the most powerful asset of the US? It's not their military (by some margin), it's not the fact that the 'US' is the best destination to go to. It is the USD. In 1970s, the USD moved from the Gold standard to well... floating. It was a move that was born out of necessity as the US simply did not have the gold reserves to pay off its debts.
The Dollar has had a cumulative price increase of nearly 630% since 1970, when the currency went off the gold standard. The gold standard wasn't perfect by any means. Countries with large gold deposits had leverage over others that did not. It created an artificial currency imbalance, so the US just shifted off the gold standard. But they did not base their currency on anything else, instead using their soft power to make the USD the reserve currency of the world. For the longest period, no country wanted the USD to fail, mostly because their currencies were intrinsically tied to the USD, they still are.
Move ahead to 2022, and things are wildly different. The Russia-Ukraine war has brought to the forefront the underlying tensions in the world. Even as Russia invaded Ukraine and EU+USA jumped to Ukraine's indirect defense, America was also keeping a close eye on Asia. Asia holds they key to the 21st century, with India and China being two of the most important countries in the world. Yes, both are heavily dependent on the USD, but if the USD loses its value, do the Asian countries really care as much about America?
Capitalism overshadowed the real power: Politics
The rise of US was hand in hand with the rise of capitalism. The focus on monetary gains and the upward trickling of money has only one logical conclusion. A revolt in the lower classes. It might not be now, it might not be for a few decades, but it will surely take place. We saw glimpses of it in the US, the Wall street protests, the Capitol Hill protests.
But in the long run, the income disparity will only serve to anger the masses. At some point, the tipping point, working to earn minimum wage, which contributes to a MNC powerhouse gaining millions, billions(?) of dollars just doesn't make sense. One of the founding principles and appeal of capitalism is that anyone can become rich. You have the brains, you can earn money. But if we just compare today with a few decades ago, you will realise, in addition to to just brains, you also need a lot of capital. And getting that capital is proving increasingly difficult by the day.
So when the people realise that getting rich is becoming increasingly difficult in the capitalist method, that's when socialism takes hold, but more importantly, there is a significant upwards revolution against capitalism and conglomerates. That's when the revolution starts.
But that's a very distant future. Things might change, governments today still have a lot of control and things can get better.
However, the Russia-Ukraine war has proven that over-reliance on capitalism and over-reliance especially on the United States is not worth it. If a country uses its reserve currency as a weapon against any other country, that's when the value of this reserve currency diminishes. I can see a very short-term future where various countries look to expand their bilateral financial arrangements and work towards a future where they do not need a third-party interference. Ofcourse the real value lies in, how do you peg any currency to something valuable. Previously, it was gold, but that is not a valuable resource anymore, considering it also poses.a similar problem as using USD as the reserve currency. Countries with large gold deposits will yield a lot of power in the international currency markets.
There might be a future where blockchain-based cryptocurrencies are used to uphold the global financial system. But cryptocurrencies need to be simplified for the everyday-person to use them. The concept of the cryptocurrency key holding all the power makes for a very dangerous precedent. If someone has your key, they own your money, it's actually a bit more dangerous than owning a physical wallet.
The Russia Ukraine war has started a new era in the global political hierarchy, one where the United states' importance will go down systematically over time. How the western countries react to it is something that eeryone is keenly watching. Equally important is how the eastern countries will be watching it, especially India and China, who hold the key to the 21st century.
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