In the past week, there have been multiple developments that have changed our perspective of what the global order looks like. The key differentiator was the absence of a name that has become synonymous with poking itself into international affairs - The United States. Taking its place was China, a nation that has long been knocking at the US’ doors for recognition and for its place in world affairs.
And for a long time, the US has been the reason for China’s rise. With increasing inflation, the US had the option to export manufacturing to cheaper places and China fulfilled that role. In the meantime, China has been slowly but surely ramping up its importance in world affairs. The Debt-politics ensured it had close financial relations with many countries across Asia and Africa as well as quite a few in Europe. But post-COVID and post the Russian invasion, China has had bigger ambitions. The ambitions range from upsetting the USD-based world economic order to taking a higher seat when it comes to global political influence. China’s intervention in the Iran-Saudi peace was a big step forward for the country. China achieved what the US failed to (or probably did not want to) achieve in the past decade or more.
That is the first precursor to Chinese ambition. When Xi announced soon that he will be visiting Ukraine and Russia, there were clear indications of what this might mean. A Russian withdrawal would have to come on the basis of Chinese negotiations. It saves face for Russia, it helps China increase its stature in world affairs and Russia would presumably still hold its control over the invaded parts of Ukraine.
With increasing war costs, there’s a lot of pressure on the EU and America to scale down their support for Ukraine. Of course, the financial costs notwithstanding, there’s a larger geopolitical influence at play, which the US does not want to give up. This war is an opportunity for either the US to further its domination or China to emerge as a true competitor to the US-led unipolar world.
Is China’s rise good?
It’s good and bad. The USD-led financial model is bad for the world. Not only does US push its inflation onto the world, but the COVID pandemic showed that the US cannot be trusted when it comes to the world’s health. Hoarding of vaccines when several of the poor countries simply could not buy vaccines is a clear indication of how the US would behave in dire situations.
But China is no saint. The country has been marred by the western media, but it is true that democracy is absent in the country. However, the progress made is not unnoticeable. That being said, the pollution and the lack of focus on improving people’s health and well-being does sting quite a bit.
There are two different trains of thought. And the ideal situation would be the emergence of a third power. The problem is there are very few alternatives for that. US would obviously want India or Europe to be this third power. China may or may not want India. There are a lot of similarities when it comes to culture and the burgeoning population amongst the Chinese and Indian countries. However, the fact that the two share a land border and there have been multiple conflicts in the past does not bode well.
So where does that leave us? Obviously, the US would want India only, and not China to be a competitor. Why? Because the Indian mindset a long time has been bogged down by the colonial attitude. We, until now, have seemed to rever our Western counterparts, despite the fact that their glory comes from looting and stealing from their colonies.
So why are we showing respect? Thankfully, India’s stance during the UN votes and in not taking a side during the Russia-Ukraine war is a policy borrowed from the Nehru’s but sharpened and made better for the present day and age.
The world needs to be multi-polar and that is to avoid situations like what happened during the pandemic and in some cases is happening even now. First, the US hoarded vaccines, it refused to accept certain vaccines (even India’s Covishield and Covaxin) and then selectively approved vaccines depending on the host country’s political standing. Even today, Russia’s Sputnik vaccine stands unapproved but China’s vaccine is approved. And we saw how badly China fared until a few months ago in controlling the COVID pandemic despite having a WHO-EUL-approved vaccine for its citizens.
The first thing to go needs to be the USD. Once USD loses its significance, it will allow for new countries to form new relationships (both economic and political), and that gives rise to a new world order. A new world order is necessary if we are to have a true representation of the current population division as well as prosperity. India is a larger economy than the UK but is still not given a seat on the UNSC. Some say India needs to act maturely to get that seat but has Britain acted maturely for that seat? Their ‘glory’ comes from plundering various colonies for their benefit, they’ve done untold wrongs over the past two centuries to be where they are today.
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